Key Hardware Directions for the Next Decade
The macro trends Distributed Systems and Ubiquitous Portability will define the
directions that will occur in hardware futures. In addition to the two macro trends, a
basic principal, form defines function, will continue to govern the evolution of
hardware.
Early computers were huge, requiring a large, special purpose room, euphemistically
known as the glass house. Teams of specialists were needed to keep the hardware and
software running. As the technology improved, smaller minicomputers moved out of the glass
house to offices, manufacturing sites and laboratories. The trend towards smaller,
powerful computers has continued. Now users can carry a computer with the power of a small
1980 era mainframe in a briefcase.
Ubiquitous hardware is not limited to personal computers. Embedded processors,
currently used in manufacturing environments, will extend computing to consumers. This has
begun to happen in automobiles, cameras and microwave ovens. By 2010, they will exist
everywhere. Because of the expected heterogeneous hardware and software environment,
a new model of inter-computer communications will be necessary. Most of today's systems
have a continuous connection. But, what will happen when this continuous connection
becomes impossible due to physical barriers? New communications and application
architectures will emerge to solve this problem.
Rather than focusing of specific components and their future, we will, in this report,
address issues surrounding the entire platform. When the future of a specific component
becomes critical for the evolution of a platform, we will follow it in detail. Any other
issues will be addressed in product reviews.
We divide hardware platforms into the following categories:
- Enterprise systems
- Server systems
- Desktop systems
- Set top systems
- Notebook systems
- Hand held systems
- Smart cards
- Embedded systems
While most of these exist today, three will emerge as pivotal systems over the next
decade. In fact, the growth of the industry will, in part, be governed by these new
platforms. In the remainder of this report, we will identify the four new systems.
Set top systems
With 67million homes with set top cable boxes, the cable industry is poised to become a
leader in Internet access. We need only consider the $1billion investment in Comcast (www.comcast.com/) made by Microsoft. With a foot in the
delivery system, Microsoft is in a position to enhance the availability of this platform.
But, isn’t this a communications issue? No. The set top box has the greatest
potential to become the standard gateway to the Internet in the 65% of the homes having
cable service. This penetration is almost twice the estimate of households with computers
(35%). With the US Census Bureau reporting a median household income in March 1996 of
$35,492, this platform comes close to providing service to the $30,000 and below that do
not have computers.
We believe, therefore that this platform will provide a key entry point for universal
Internet access. Further, it is subsidized, to some extent, by the cable vendors who rent
the set top box to customers. If so, we will have found a way to place a computer into a
large percentage of the US homes. In further reports, we will examine the characteristics
of this platform and its interaction with operating systems and applications.
Smart cards
Will every soda machine be connected to the Internet? Will each user be able to
carry information used to personalize an application? Will there be a foolproof security
technique to gain access to the Net or your house? The answers to these questions will be
found in smart cards, credit card sized computers with the power to process information on
the card. While 10 million cards have been used successfully in France, they have scarcely
made a dent in North America. This will change within the next ten years, most likely in
the six to eight year timeframe. With the major credit card companies such as Visa,
MasterCard and American Express exerting their weight behind new initiatives and pilot
projects, it is only a matter of when, not if they will come to this shore.
When they do, their explosion on the market will exceed that of the Internet in the mid to
late 1990’s
Companies that become early adopters of these cards will gain market differentiation.
The ability to personalize the relationship with the customer without the expenditure of a
storage-centric architecture. Not only will they be able to capture some of the payment
card market, but by storing additional information, they will be able to provide a level
of customization unavailable today.
On the Internet, the smart card, together with biometrics will provide the
authentication that will be required for truly transparent electronic commerce. At the
same time, it will provide the bridge between the Internet and isolated systems, those not
connected to the Net. One of the first applications of this will the stored value card,
where money downloaded on the Internet will be spent in vending machines, parking
meters….
Embedded systems
The average automobile uses a number of embedded systems to carry out the tasks
required to keep the automobile operating. Similarly, small microprocessors are used in
appliances to provide user and internal control functions. Until now, these systems have
operated as special purpose standalone processors or systems. That will change in the next
decade.
We believe that interoperable embedded systems will form part of the home and office
computing environments. But, unlike those existing today, they will be able to communicate
with other and more servers to produce a network. By the end of the next decade this
network will raise the embedded environment into one of the most powerful forces in
computing. This, in turn, will have significant impact on the design of home and business
systems.
For example, consider an interaction between a cell phone and the home server when a
person takes a trip. The route is determined using standard software. Then, it is
downloaded onto the cell phone. Appropriate telephone numbers from the address book will
also be downloaded. As the trip progresses, the phone, together with a GPS system in the
car provides driving instructions.
Action items
Hardware vendors - These emerging hardware platforms will change the
landscape of computing in the next decade. The hardware vendors that begin to develop
platforms that conform to these directions will achieve product differentiation. The
stages are high. We can assume that at least 70 million advanced set top boxes will be
required by the end of the next decade. Hundreds of millions of smart cards and embedded
systems will exist. Companies that supply them will be getting in on the ground floor.
Hardware vendors that plan to play in these areas should be planning, designing and
testing these new hardware platforms.
Software vendors – There is a dearth of applications for these
new platforms. As these hardware platforms come on-line, the demand for applications and
development systems will grow as well. In the long term, the primary growth area will be
in the software systems that will leverage the new platforms. The time to design for these
systems is now. If you fail to design for these systems and their integration with
today’s applications, you will be forced to play catch-up.
User organizations – These new platforms will change the types
and implementations of your applications. Financial institutions, insurance companies and
manufacturers will be able to obtain a competitive advantage by producing applications and
systems that leverage these new systems. They should become part of a company’s
long-term strategic plans.
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