Computing's Generations
The Isolated generation (until the mid 1960's) was led by mainframe vendors. The
Shared generation (mid 1960's to late 1970's) was characterized by. This generation saw
the dominance of ISVs. The Personal generation (late 1970's to present) saw the emergence
of personally affordable computers. One ISV defined the operating system platform, with
many others providing applications. Hardware directions are led by component vendors. The
Virtual generation will transform the personal into the interpersonal computer. It will be
characterized by a fundamental change in software architecture. Standards, rather than
vendors will provide direction. Understanding these past generations assists in
determining strategic directions that must taken for the fourth.
The computing industry has passed through three generations. Within three years it will
enter its fourth generation. Each new generation has produced major changes to the
computing landscape. After the computing community accepted a new generation (usually
three to four years after it emerged), new vendors assumed leadership positions. This
leadership change was a direct consequence of the need for new software and development
systems that maximized the potential of the new hardware, software and communications
architectures.
Each successive computing generation introduced not only new ways to interact with the
computer, but changed the relationship between computers and society, between computers
and business and between computer and users. The introduction of new hardware triggered a
change in computer organization in these three generations.
How? New hardware changed the way an individual used the system. This, in
turn, changed the underlying design of programs. New software and development tools
were necessary to implement the new software. As a new generation emerged, many of
the previous generation's leaders were unable to recognize the new generation. They were
blinded by their success in the current environment. As the vacuum formed, new companies
entered the market and, over time, became the new leaders. As we make the transition to
computing's next generation, we must ask the question who will be its leader? It is
difficult to identify specific vendors. However, it is possible to describe the
characteristics of the venders who will dominate.As we near the end of the third
generation, we can ask -- Who will be the new leaders in the Fourth generation?
The isolated generation existed from the 1950's to the mid 1960's. The computer stood
supreme in splendid isolation, waited upon by it attendants. The user rarely, if ever, saw
the computer, communicating with it through punch cards, paper tape, and printed paper.
The computer operated in a batch mode, processing groups of transactions, or
"jobs."
Using the computer was often an arcane task. Users had to supply a deck of cards
containing the working program. Then they were required to specify which tape and disk
drives were to be used. Often these statements were cryptic, as was the case of the DD
statement (data definition) used by IBM operating systems to identify all the details of
the disk or tape. Information had to be entered exactly, both in content and format. It
was easy to make mistakes.
Results were not instantaneous. Without any errors of delays, it could take an hour for
a short, standard report. Because of the computer's relatively slow speed, longer reports
were performed overnight. A special report could take days: first to code the request,
then to correct any errors and lastly to await the printed results.
While the entire system was centralized, a nascent client / server model began to
emerge. Using secondary computers to improve performance resulted in the mainframe acting
as the client and the secondary computer (via the tape) as the server. At this stage of
the computer's evolution, communications were limited or even non-existent.
Computer manufacturers were the leading vendors. The hardware vendor usually supplied
all the software. Although independent software vendors (ISVs) existed, the highly
fragmented hardware market made them niche players.
Attaching terminals to the computer characterized the shared generation. This
generation existed from the mid 1960's to late 1970's. Now, individuals could directly
communicate with the computer. There was a catch: computer access could be highly
controlled. Using the computer often required obtaining permission, opening an account,
then learning how to use the programs. The IS department could, and often did, control the
application and development software available to the user. Unless highly experienced, the
average user was unable to choose and install a new software package directly. Even within
these limitations, this generation made the computer available to many individuals in a
corporation.
This style of computer - human interaction began the process of end-user empowerment.
With response times measured in seconds or minutes, users could interact directly with the
computer. Rather than batching transactions, a single transaction or request could be
processed. Computer applications became more tolerant of errors than those in the isolated
generation.
This generation saw the growth of ISVs. By this time, the number of hardware vendors
had shrunk, improving the market for ISVs. Hardware vendors, lead by IBM who controlled
over 60% of the market, still supplied the operating systems, compilers, and transaction
processors. By the end of this generation, ISVs supplied a major portion of the software.
Using terminals resulted in different ways to supply data and commands. When using
cards, it was usually necessary to place the information within a specified location on
the card. This approach could not work on terminals. Users required either a form, a
command, or a dialog for data entry.
The late 1970's and early 1980's saw the emergence of the personal generation. The cost
of a computer had dropped below $5,000, then $3000. Workers who needed a computer could
buy one. The computer had replaced the terminal. The hardware market became fragmented,
with the computer becoming a commodity. The user, not the IS department has been the prime
customer. Only recently have corporations tried to reimpose control over the chaos that
ensued.
Personal computers, more powerful than those of the isolated generation, became
portable. Many weigh less than six pounds. Handheld units weigh less than a pound.
Initially, the personal computer behaved as a single user system. It was truly a personal
computer. Changes in user interface technologies made the computer a highly personal
tool, both in form and function.
Unlike previous generations, the user controlled the entire system. Within eight years
local area networks became commercially available, permitting computers to exchange
information directly. The personal computer has evolved into the networked computer.
The client / server architecture is the mature application architecture for the personal
generation.
This is the generation of major software vendors. Systems software vendors, lead by
Microsoft and Novell, control the desktop, server and network operating systems. Other
vendors such as Lotus, Symantec, Computer Associates and Network Associates must function
within the operating systems provided by the systems vendors. These application vendors
have become today's ISVs.
As computers became part of elementary and secondary education, they entered the home.
Initially they were in the realm of hobbyists. New applications and lower prices made them
useful for entertainment, educational and non business related activities. By 1998, the
computer reached into 40% of the U.S. homes.
We are on the brink of the virtual generation. Local and wide area networks, together
with client / server architectures will bridge the personal and the distributed
generations. The personal computer will be transformed into the interpersonal computer.
For this to occur, the computing environment must become virtual. But, what is a
virtual environment? Simply stated, it is a temporary computing environment that is
assembled to perform a specific task. While this environment appears to exist in its
totality at any point of time, it will contain computing components that can be separated
in both location and time. A transaction or task will be completed piecemeal of a period
of seconds, minutes or even weeks. After each step in the task has been completed, the
virtual environment reverts to its individual components. Yet, to the user the entire
system will appear a unified, permanent whole.
This transforms the master - slave and standalone architectures indicative of the first
three generations to a peer to peer system. If What You See Is What You Get
(WYSWYG) defines today's interactive, graphical system, What You Need Is What You Have
(WYNWYH) describes the virtual generation.
Today we design computer systems around a known, predefined environment. Even in
operating systems, an underlying assumption between hardware platforms, between computer
programs and between the user and the computer system exists. This knowledge will become
unnecessary in the virtual generation. The user will become unaware of the hardware,
processes or the location of information. To develop applications, for the most part, will
require the assembling components into an element of processing.
Action Items
With each new generation, the leadership changed. In the software industry, it moved
from mainframe vendors to independent software vendors (ISV). In the third generation, it
moved to the company that controlled the operating systems on the personal computer
(Microsoft) and major application ISVs. In the Virtual generation, it is likely that it
will change again. In this case, the basic leadership will lie with official and
unofficial standards bodies.
New hardware platforms have emerged that are more portable and less expensive. We
expect this to continue with the emergence of appliances with embedded systems. This will
result in intelligence existing within other electrical and electronic devices as well as
special purpose computers.
Vendors –We recommend that software developers closely monitor and become involved
in the standards process. With competing standards, we recommend adopting a subset of the
competing standards where the same language, for example, is being standardized. In the
case of competing standards, we recommend supporting both if it is critical to the
application. For development, the use of a meta language has allowed the support of
multiple languages.
Users – We recommend keeping options open whenever possible. In the case of
operating systems on the personal computer, we recommend developing expertise in Linux.
Develop internal standards based upon data, rather than application, compatibility. If a
change in applications becomes necessary or desirable, the need to translate data formats
is reduced.
We recommend that the new portable, special purpose computers that will emerge within
the next three to five years be included in strategic plans. This will require the
redesign of many applications to better leverage their power.
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